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2014 Documento de Trabajo #306

Assessing the extent of democratic failures. A 99%-Condorcet’s Jury Theorem

This This paper determines the probability a large electorate will take take the correct decision under qualified majority rules. The model allows the competence of each elector to vary with the size of the electorate, thus the results represent a connection between «naive» and «strategic» Condorcet`s Jury Theorems.

JEL Classification: D72 · H11 · P16.

Matteo Triossi

Keywords: Condorcet’s Jury theorem, naive-strategic connection., probability of success