Seminario CEA-MIPP - MIERCOLES 6/12/2023, 12:30 HRS - Beuchef 851, piso 4, sala BP-401 - Local Randomization Regression Discontinuity for Event Studies: Application to a Penal Procedure Reform in Uruguay - Carlos Díaz (UAH)

Tema: «Local Randomization Regression Discontinuity for Event Studies: Application to a Penal Procedure Reform in Uruguay»

(with M. Cattaneo and R. Titiunik) Presenta: Carlos Díaz (UAH)

We explore the potential unintended consequences of a new code of penal procedure on criminal behavior. In November 2017, Uruguay switched from an inquisitorial system (where a single judge leads the investigation and decides the appropriate punishment for a particular crime) to an adversarial system (where the judge serves as a referee to ensure correct procedures but the investigation is led by prosecutors). Using a regression-discontinuity design for the most common offenses reported in Montevideo, we find a local and significant increase in the total number of reports filed when the new adversarial code became effective. Results show an increase of 21-24 police reports per day, accounting for 23%-26% of the average annual increase. We also discuss the conditions that are required to use the regression-discontinuity framework in applications where time periods both index the units and function as the score variable.

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